SOYBEANS: Since it now appears as though we’ve confirmed that the Primary wave-[b] advance from the 2008 low in beans is unfolding into a "Contracting Triangle" formation, the overall pattern indicates that a POWERFUL, "THRUST-WAVE" DECLINE ought to begin....soon? However, because there are currently TWO WAYS in which to label the FINAL, (e)-wave section up (which started back-in Feb), we’re going to hold-off on going short for at least another day or so. Note, IF wave-(e) is unfolding into a "normal", a-b-c pattern, then prices could still "spike-up" to the 61.8%-times wave-(c)projection, or about 10.18-10.23. However, IF wave-(e) is actually tracing-out yet another "Contracting-Triangle", which appears to be the SLIGHTLY BETTER COUNT, then we should NOT EXCEED the Mar 29 high at 9.77 ½. KEY RESISTANCE IS AT 9.61-9.67 ½ and 9.76-9.87, with support at 9.51 ½, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½, 9.17-9.16, 8.92-8.80 ½ and 8.45.

CORN: Since last week’s action in the May corn not only produced a BEARISH, a-b-c rally, but prices also peaked right at our OPTIMUM TARGET for a wave-2 peak, or 3.55 ½-3.61, the overall wave-position continues to look VERY NEGATIVE! In fact, IF prices can now EXCEED the April 1 low at 3.43 ½ (by much?), the ideal count will actually indicate that we are just now entering "heart" of a SUPER BEARISH, wave-3-of-(3), of Primary wave-[c]decline. In which case, BEFORE we see anything more than a "mild", 1-week bounce, prices will likely fall to the EQUAL WAVES (1)-and-(3) projection at about 3.02 ½. Anyhow, in the event the 3.43 ½ area "holds" initially, then we could see one more "test" of the 3.55 ½-3.61 resistance. Thus, we’ll keep our sell-order in at 3.56 for now N.t. resist. is at 3.47,w/support at 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4/3.37 ½-3.35/3.27 3/4-3.24

WHEAT: Since there’s NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a SIGNIFICANT LOW in the wheat here, AND the current pattern suggests that a larger, "impulse-pattern down" should already be underway from the Mar 17 top, hedgers and HRT may want to try the short-side. Note, as long as the Mar 17 top at 4.98 1/4 is NOT EXCEEDED, the pattern will continue to call for a DROP BELOW the 2009 low of 4.25 1/4. If 4.98 1/4 is violated, however, then I guess a major "buy-signal" is possible. Although, I have no idea how to label such an event. KEY RESIST. is at 4.73-4.76/4.87-4.94(BEST)/5.03-5.08 ½,w/support at 4.67-4.60/4.45 ½-4.35

COTTON: Although the May cotton still needs to score another new sell-off low AFTER the next 1-day plus bounce occurs, in order to be certain (?)that a MAJOR TOP has indeed been confirmed, everything is certainly leaning in that direction. Note, that last week’s high (83.17) not only occurred right at our MAX RESISTANCE AREA OF 83.08-83.39, but the subsequent drop has also traced-out a bearish-looking, "five-wave" pattern, AND we’re also poised to "break" key support at 79.32-78.06. Thus, depending on "how" the intra-day pattern unfolds over the next day or two, we’ll probably be looking for a spot to get ALL TRADERS back-in on the short-side. Resistance is at 78.10-78.47, 79.26-79.71/80.57-80.95,w/support at 79.32-78.06/76.72-76.00/74.57-73.94/72.43-71.88

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SUGAR: Given that the advance off the April 1 low in May sugar has now clearly EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other bounce since the Feb top, it looks like we may have confirmed a completed decline of Primary-degree. In which case,prices should remain in a HIGHER-TREND for at least the next couple of weeks, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT 19.66-19.91. However, because the intra-day pattern from the April 1 low looks A LOT MORE LIKE A BEARISH, a-b-c formation (so far?), I’m going to wait at least another day BEFORE considering a quick long-position. IF the drop from Monday’s 17.37 high fails to yield a "bullish-three", then prices could try for our next lower support area at 14.37-13.84. N.t.support’s at 16.35/15.58-15.10,w/resist.at 16.98-17.33, 17.76, 18.49-18.53

COFFEE: Although last week’s 139.85 high in the May coffee was NOT at one of our key resistance areas, the subsequent drop (on the intra-day charts) has so far produced a beautiful, "five-wave pattern". Thus, since this suggests that our expected, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO PEAK may have finally been confirmed, I can make a very good case for a SUPER BEARISH WAVE-POSITION! Note, IF we are now in just the INITIAL, wave-[1] section down, of a LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-THREE decline then we should hit the USUALLY DYNAMIC, wave-[3]-of-C position within the next couple of weeks. Thus, depending on "how" the short-term pattern unfolds here, we could be looking to ADD to our short-position...soon. IF the next bounce also develops into a "bearish-three", then "look-out below". Anyhow, while I suppose that the May coffee could still "re-test"our KEY RESISTANCE AT 137.00-138.65, I’m hoping that our closer resistance areas at 132.70-133.60/134.90-135.65 now "hold". Support is at 131.30-128.95/127.55/126.30-125.35/123.40.

COCOA: While I CAN’T RULE-OUT the possibility of another "test" of the HUGE 2985-3026 RESISTANCE AREA in the May cocoa (yet), the development of a "five-wave drop" strongly indicates that a Primary wave-[4] top has already been hit ,i.e., at the April 1 high of 3000. In which case, since we’d now be in just the INITIAL, wave-(1) section down, of a LARGER, Primary wave-[5] decline, A VERY BEARISH POSITION would also be at hand here. Under this count, depending on "where" wave-(1) bottoms, we should get a BARE MINIMUM TARGET AT 2690-2682, with the MORE LIKELY OBJECTIVES PROBABLY AT EITHER 2554-2530, OR 2435-2425. Anyhow, I’m inclined to keep the stop on HALF of our short-position just ABOVE our TWO CLOSEST RESISTANCE AREAS; at 2910 and 2952-2961, with the other stop ABOVE 3026. Support is at 2919-2905, 2848-2834, 2769-2737, 2690-2682 and 2554.

OJ: Again, since the current drop in OJ is still "in-line" with the two largest corrections that have occurred since the Feb 2009 low, we HAVE NOT CONFIRMED A MAJOR TOP...YET. However, because I can certainly make a case for a SIGNIFICANT, CYCLE-WAVE-B PEAK, AND the drop from the Mar 8 top has clearly produced a BEARISH, "five-wave" pattern, we definitely want to look at SELLING the next 1-week plus bounce. Note, that an initial, five-wave pattern against the main trend is never (?) the end of the movement, but rather the start of a new sequence in the other direction. In other words, the current drop is ONLY an INITIAL wave-(1)/wave-(a). Resist. is at 132.20-132.80/134.60-135.75/137.00-138.70, with the support at 129.55-129.40/127.75-126.15/124.30-122.70/120.60.

SILVER: Since the May silver has SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED OUR KEY RESISTANCE AT 17.95-18.30, it’s certainly possible that somewhat higher projections have been confirmed. However, because the overall advance from the Feb low still looks like a VERY BEARISH, Primary wave-[b] correction, I would NOT throw-in-the-towel on the short-side...just yet. Note, that once we see A DROP IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS, then we should confirm that a HUGE,Primary wave-[c]-DECLINE has begun. At which point, we’ll want to re-enter short, as the pattern will then call for a drop to AT LEAST 11.88-11.52. Of course, once we do see [a drop in excess of 1 ½-trading days], then the pattern could turn QUITE BULLISH, IF another move-up to a new rally high then follows. In this case, we’ll probably see a "re-test" of the 2008 high at 21.185. Resistance is at 18.30, 18.405, 18.835, 19.26 and 19.69, with the support now at 18.21-18.02, 17.82-17.62, 17.405, 17.14-17.01, 16.69-16.595, 16.425 and 16.185-16.02.

STOCKS: Given that everything continues to indicate that the advance from the Feb low in stocks is a FINAL, Primary wave-[5], of an even larger, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE, it still looks like we ought to be "close" to a SIGNIFICANT TOP. However, because "picking-tops" is usually very difficult; especially in stocks, it’s doubtful that we’ll attempt a short-position,UNTIL we have confirmed a completed advance (from the Feb low). Which, as you are probably tired of hearing by now, still requires A DROP IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS. Resistance for the June S&P is at 1189.50-1195.75/1204.25-1208.50/1216.00-1221.25, with support at 1190.50/1183.25(good)/1176.00/1169.00(good)/1161.50/1154.50(good)/1147.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/13/10

CORN: Hedgers(75%)/traders can ADD a short May corn at 3.56, placing ALL STOPS at 3.62 1/4. We’re already short from 3.86 and 3.68 3/4 (+$3,162).

COTTON: HRT/hedgers(25%) keep the stop on short May cotton at 81.60(+$1,405).

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$3,170). Use a stop on HALF to 2964, and keep the stop on the other HALF at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$1,387). Keep stop at 136.45 SILVER: Traders were stopped-out of a short a May mini silver at about 18.55 for a loss of $615. Stand-aside Tuesday.