SOYBEANS: While the long-term count in beans still calls for a MAJOR, Primary wave-[c]decline...soon?, we have now confirmed that the drop from the Mar 29 top is NOT a "bearish-five". Thus, when you consider that we’ve NOT had a clear, "five-wave/impulse-pattern" in ANY DIRECTION for the past 6-months, it’s really difficult to pinpoint the shorter-term position. With that said, however, it does appear fairly likely that some-type of a Contracting Triangle formation has been developing...possibly ever since the 2008 low. In which case, we may still need to see a FINAL, wave-c advance to the 10.18 level.However, because it’s also possible that the (e)-wave section of the "triangle" is unfolding into yet another "Contracting Triangle", the slightly better count suggests that prices will peak at considerably LOWER LEVELS. In this case, the OPTIMUM RESISTANCE AREAS will be at 9.58-9.67 ½ and 9.76-9.87 MAX! Anyhow, until I’m fairly sure of the short-term position, we’ll probably stay on the sidelines. Support’s at 9.39 ½-9.29 ½, 9.17-9.16, 8.92-8.80 ½ and 8.45.

CORN: Given that the rally off the April 1 low in May corn looks like a BEARISH, "three-wave pattern" so far, AND prices have now also reached our OPTIMUM RESISTANCE AREA for a small-degree/wave-2 correction, or 3.55 ½-to-3.61, we probably ought to take a LOW-RISK shot at ADDING another short-position. Note, IF prices can turn back-down from this area, then the BEST COUNT will indicate that we are about to enter one of the MOST BEARISH POSITIONS possible, or a wave-3-of-(3), of a LARGER Primary wave-[c]. In the event May corn trades much ABOVE 3.61, however, then we may have to conclude that a far more "complex", Contracting Triangle formation has ALSO been developing here (see beans). In this case, BEFORE a highly bearish-position is again at hand, prices will probably need to work in a sideways-to-higher trend for a couple more weeks, as a FINAL, wave-(e)section up is traced-out. The next resist. is at 3.67-3.70 and 3.77-3.82 ½,w/support at 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35, 3.27 3/4-3.24 and 3.15.

WHEAT: Since there’s NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a SIGNIFICANT LOW in the wheat here, AND the current pattern suggests that a larger, "impulse-pattern down" should already be underway from the Mar 17 top, hedgers and HRT may want to try the short-side. Note, as long as the Mar 17 top at 4.98 1/4 is NOT EXCEEDED, the pattern will continue to call for a DROP BELOW the 2009 low of 4.25 1/4. If 4.98 1/4 is violated, however, then I guess a major "buy-signal" is possible. Although, I have no idea how to label such an event. KEY RESIST. is at 4.73-4.76/4.87-4.94(BEST!)/5.03-5.08 ½, w/support at 4.70-4.60/4.45 ½.

COTTON: Provided the May cotton holds KEY RESISTANCE AT 83.08-83.39, the BEST COUNT will continue to indicate that the MOST SIGNIFICANT TOP SINCE 1995 is at hand. However, IF 83.39 is exceeded by much, then I’m assuming that the Mar 1 high at 84.32 will ALSO be violated. In which case, BEFORE a major top is hit, prices will likely stage a "re-test" of the 2008 high (91.38). N.t. resist. is at 79.26-79.71/80.57-80.95/81.89, w/support at 79.32-78.06/76.72-76.00/74.57.

HOGS: Since we have obviously confirmed that the Mar 4-Mar 26 decline in the April hogs was ONLY a correction of intermediate-degree, we can forget about completing the advance that started back in Aug 2009....UNTIL April goes off-the-board (April 15). At that time, however, once June becomes the nearby contract, then I think it’s highly likely that a TREMENDOUS TOP OF PRIMARY OR CYCLE-DEGREE will be VERY CLOSE. Thus, as we get closer to Mid-April, we’ll have to see "where" June is trading; relative to long-term resistance. Resist.is at 77.20-77.90/78.85-78.92,w/support at 76.77/75.20-74.85/73.65/72.82-72.37/71.35

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SUGAR: Given that the current bounce in May sugar is now just about EQUAL in time to ALL of the largest rallies since the Feb 1 top, a rather "pivotal" position is at hand. IF a new rally high occurs AFTER LATE THURS/EARLY FRI., then we’ll be able to make a strong case for a completed decline of Primary-degree. In which case, prices should stage a several-week advance (also of Primary-degree), probably back-up to AT LEAST THE 19.66-19.91 LEVEL. However, because the last leg-down was awfully short in terms of "time" for a fifth-wave, the odds probably favor at least ONE MORE SIZEABLE DROP...BEFORE a significant low is actually at hand. In this case, our next BUY-ZONE will be at 14.37-13.84. There’s still GOOD SUPPORT AT 15.58-15.10, however. The resistance for May is now at 15.90-16.21, 16.98-17.33, 17.76, 18.49-18.53, 19.16 and 19.66.

COFFEE: While I guess there’s a chance that the May coffee could "spike-up" to our MAXIMUM RESISTANCE AREA (?) AT 141.45-143.80, I can NOT over emphasize the BEARISH IMPLICATIONS that stem from the intermediate AND long-term formations. Because the rally-off from 2008 low not only produced a VERY BEARISH-LOOKING, "three-wave pattern", but the drop from the Dec 2009 top (149.20)also resulted in a crystal-clear, "five-wave movement", it’s HIGHLY LIKELY that the current advance is ONLY a "corrective-wave". Thus, while prices could theoretically rally all the way back to the 2009 top at 149.20, the bottom-line calls for a HUGE, WAVE-THREE, OF CYCLE-WAVE-C DECLINE...NOW! Anyhow, as long as we DON’T EXCEED the 137.00-138.65 resistance area (again), we’ll stay short. There’s also resistance at 134.90-135.65 and 139.60-140.50, with the support now at 134.70-133.65, 131.30-128.95, 127.55, 126.30-125.35 and 123.40-122.70.

COCOA: Considering that we now not only have a very nice-looking, "three-wave rally" in place in the May cocoa; at the April 1 high of 3000, but prices also held right at our BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 2985-3026, I can make an awfully good case for a SIGNIFICANT, Primary wave-[4] peak. In which case, we should now see a near immediate, wave-[5] decline to AT LEAST the 2690-2682 level; if not to the next lower support area at 2554-2530. So, while I suppose we still need to keep the stop on HALF of our short-position ABOVE the 3026 level, I’m inclined to LOWER the other stop to 1-tick ABOVE the April 1 top. Note, IF this high is exceeded, then prices could try for the next higher resistance areas at 3079-3096/3156-3186. Support’s at 2848-2834/2769-2737/2690-2682/2554.

OJ: Given that the current pullback in OJ is still "in-line" with the two largest corrections that have occurred since the Feb 2009 low, we HAVE NOT CONFIRMED A MAJOR TOP...YET. However, because I can certainly make a case for a SIGNIFICANT, CYCLE-WAVE-B PEAK, AND the drop from the Mar 8 top has clearly produced a BEARISH, "five-wave" pattern, we definitely want to look at SELLING the next 1-week plus bounce. Note, that an initial, five-wave pattern against the main trend is never (?) the end of the movement, but rather the start of a new sequence in the other direction. In other words, the current drop is ONLY an INITIAL wave-(1)/wave-(a). Resist. is at 127.30-129.15/132.20-132.80/134.60/135.75/137.00-138.70, w/support at 127.75-126.15/124.30-122.70/120.60-119/65.

SILVER: Although we could see a somewhat significant "change" in the wave-position for silver, IF a new rally high happens to follow the next multi-day pullback, our Preferred Count continues to suggest that a HECK OF A SELL is at hand. Note, as long as our POWERFUL RESISTANCE AREA AT 17.95-18.30 holds here, which yields the 30.9%-69.1%-retracement combination from the 1980/2009 highs, AND appreciations of 414.58%, 114.58%, 52.95%, 44.1%, 23.6% and 9.1% from past lows, the pattern will call for a BIG, Primary wave-[c]decline...to AT LEAST THE 11.88-11.52 AREA.The next resistance is at 18.405, 18.835, 19.26 and 19.69 with support at 18.02/17.82-17.62/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.18

STOCKS: Since the June S&P has now slightly exceeded our long-term target at 1174.50-1180.50, it looks like we’re headed for at least 1189.50-1195.75; if not to our next MAJOR CLUSTER AT 1204.25-1208.50. However, because everything else continues to suggest that a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE PEAK IS CLOSE(?), we’ll continue to watch for ANY SIGN of a top. Which, at least for now, is probably going to require A DROP IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS. Support for June is at 1183.25?/1176.00/1169.00/1161.50/1154.50(good)/1147.00/1139.75(good)/1132.50.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/09/10

CORN: Hedgers(75%)/traders can ADD a short May corn at 3.56-ob, placing ALL STOPS at 3.62 1/4. We’re already short from 3.86 and 3.68 3/4 (+$2,912).

COTTON: HRT/hedgers(25%)LOWER the stop on short May cotton to 81.60(+$1,140).

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$4,330). Use a stop on HALF at 3001, and keep the other stop on the other HALF at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$956). LOWER stop to 138.80. SILVER: We are short a May mini silver at 17.935(-$192). Keep stop at 18.535.