SOYBEANS: IF the May beans can now DROP BELOW last week’s 9.30 ½ low, BEFORE Monday’s 9.46 high is exceeded, then the pattern will indicate that a BEARISH, "five-wave decline" is indeed unfolding-off the Mar 29 top. In which case, traders and hedgers will probably want to go ahead and re-enter the short-side as this development ought to confirm that a MAJOR, PRIMARY WAVE-[c]DECLINE is finally underway. In the event 9.46 is violated first, however, then we’ll probably have to figure that the "corrective-rally" from the Feb bottom is still in progress. Which, in theory, could mean that a FINAL SHOT-UP to the 10.18 level is still possible. It should be duly noted, however, that this count does NOT FIT WELL with ANY of the other grains. Thus, in the event prices fail to DROP HARD....NOW, my guess is that we’re in a rather complex, Contracting Triangle. Under this count, the current rally will likely peak at EITHER the 9.58-9.67 ½, OR 9.76-9.87 resistance areas. N.t. resist.is at 9.44-9.45 ½, w/support at 9.36 ½-9.29 ½, 9.17-9.16, 8.92-8.80 ½(good) and 8.45-8.24

CORN: While there are a couple of slightly different interpretations that are possible over the short-term, the overall pattern in corn continues to strongly indicate that a MAJOR, Primary wave-[c] DECLINE is unfolding-off the Jan top. In fact, since it also appears likely that we HAVE NOT even reached the MOST BEARISH-POSITION YET, or wave-(3)-of-Primary wave-[c], we’ll probably want try and ADD to our shorts...on the next bounce. Note, IF we’re ONLY in wave-one down now, of the larger wave-(3), then the MOST DYNAMIC/BEARISH POSITION should actually be at hand AFTER the next multi-day rally unfolds ,i.e., wave-two, of the larger wave-(3) decline. Anyhow, I’ll be watching the intra-day pattern closely...for a good spot to ADD. Resist. is at 3.47, 3.55 ½-3.60 and 3.67-3.70, w/support at 3.45-3.43 3/4/3.37 ½-3.35/3.27 3/4-3.24 ½/3.15.

WHEAT: While the current pattern in wheat continues to look QUITE BEARISH, my "time analysis" does indicate that the OPTIMUM PERIOD FOR A MAJOR LOW IS SOMETIME THIS MONTH. Thus, since we ONLY need to drop below the 2009 low of 4.25 1/4, in order to make a case for a completed, Primary wave-[c]decline, I’m guessing that our next play here will be on the long-side. Note, that once a Double-Three formation off the 2008 top is in place, the pattern will call for a MAJOR ADVANCE of the same-degree as the entire 2008-2010 decline. Support for the May wheat is at 4.63-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35, 4.24-4.10 and 3.98 ½-3.83 ½, with the resistance at 4.63 ½, 4.73-4.76, 4.87 1/4-4.94 and 5.03-5.08 ½.

COTTON: As long as the May cotton holds KEY RESISTANCE AT 83.08-83.39, our Preferred Count will continue to indicate that the entire, SCWAVE-(B) advance from the 2001 low has ENDED. In which case, the MOST BEARISH POSITION SINCE 1995 should be close. However, IF 83.39 is exceeded by much, then I’m assuming that the Mar 1 high at 84.32 will ALSO be violated. In this event, BEFORE a major top is hit, prices will likely stage a "re-test" of the 2008 high of 91.38. Support is at 82.17/80.98-80.60/79.32-78.06/76.72-76.00/74.57-73.94.

HOGS: Since we have obviously confirmed that the Mar 4-Mar 26 decline in the April hogs was ONLY a correction of intermediate-degree, we can forget about completing the advance that started back in Aug 2009....UNTIL April goes off-the-board (April 15). At that time, however, once June becomes the nearby contract, then I think it’s highly likely that a TREMENDOUS TOP OF PRIMARY OR CYCLE-DEGREE will be VERY CLOSE. Thus, as we get closer to the Mid-April period, we’ll have to see "where" June is trading; relative to our long-term resistance numbers. Resistance for the April hogs is at 76.45?, 77.20-77.90 and 78.85-78.92,w/support at 75.20-74.85/73.65/72.82-72.37/71.35-70.80/70.02-69.62

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COCOA: Considering that we now not only have a very nice-looking, "three-wave rally" in place in the May cocoa; at the April 1 high of 3000, but prices also held right at our BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 2985-3026, I can make an awfully good case for a SIGNIFICANT, Primary wave-[4] peak. In which case, we should now see a near immediate, wave-[5] decline to AT LEAST the 2690-2682 level; if not to the next lower support area at 2554-2530. So, while I suppose we still need to keep the stop on HALF of our short-position ABOVE the 3026 level, I’m inclined to LOWER the other stop to 1-tick ABOVE the April 1 top. Note, IF this high is exceeded, then prices could try for the next higher resistance areas at 3079-3096/3156-3186. Support’s at 2919-2905/2848-2834/2769-2737/2690.

OJ: Given that the current pullback in OJ is still "in-line" with the two largest corrections that have occurred since the Feb 2009 low, we HAVE NOT CONFIRMED A MAJOR TOP...YET. However, because I can certainly make a case for a SIGNIFICANT, CYCLE-WAVE-B PEAK, AND the drop from the Mar 8 top has clearly produced a BEARISH, "five-wave" pattern, we definitely want to look at SELLING the next 1-week plus bounce. Note, that an initial, five-wave pattern against the main trend is never (?) the end of the movement, but rather the start of a new sequence in the other direction. In other words, the current drop is ONLY an INITIAL wave-(1), or wave-(a). Resistance is at 134.60-135.75/137.00-138.70/141.30-142.00/145.60/ w/support at 133.00-131.25/129.55-129.40/127.75-126.15.

COFFEE: Since the May coffee closed SLIGHTLY ABOVE OUR KEY RESISTANCE AT 137.00-138.65 on Monday, I guess prices could be headed for the LAST REALLY GOOD AREA that I can detect, or 141.45-143.80. It should be duly noted, however that in Elliott terms, this market continues to look like "an accident waiting to happen". In short, because the rally-off the 2008 low not only produced a VERY BEARISH-LOOKING, "three-wave pattern", but the drop from the Dec 2009 top (149.20) also resulted in a crystal-clear, "five-wave movement", it’s nearly impossible to come-up with anything other than a HIGHLY NEGATIVE COUNT! Of course, in theory, I guess it’s possible that prices could go all the way back up to the 2009 top first (149.20)?? Near-term resistance is at 139.60-140.50, with support at 138.90/137.15/135.65-133.65/131.30-128.95/127.55/126.30-125.35

SUGAR: Since we now have a decent-looking, "five-wave decline" in place from the Feb 1 top in sugar (30.40), AND prices ALSO achieved EXCELLENT SUPPORT AT 15.58-15.10 (last Thursday), I can make a pretty good case for a completed decline of Primary-degree. In which case, prices should now stage a several-week rally (also of Primary-degree), probably back-up to AT LEAST THE 19.66-19.91 LEVEL. However, because the "fifth-wave" section down was quite short in terms of "time", at only 1 ½-trading days, I’m inclined to hold-off at least another day..before considering a long-position. Note, IF the current bounce fails, then wave-five down could extend to our next MAJOR SUPPORT CLUSTER; or 14.37-13.84. Resist. is at 15.90-16.21/16.98-17.33/17.76/18.49-18.53/19.16/19.66.

SILVER: Although we could see a somewhat significant "change" in the wave-position for silver, IF a new rally high happens to follow the next multi-day pullback, our Preferred Count continues to suggest that a HECK OF A SELL is at hand. Note, as long as our POWERFUL RESISTANCE AREA AT 17.95-18.30 holds here, which yields the 30.9%-69.1%-retracement combination from the 1980/2009 highs, AND appreciations of 414.58%, 114.58%, 52.95%, 44.1%, 23.6% and 9.1% from past lows, the pattern will call for a BIG, Primary wave-[c]decline...to AT LEAST THE 11.88-11.52 AREA.The next resistance is at 18.405, 18.835, 19.26 and 19.69 with support at 18.02/17.82-17.62/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.18

STOCKS: Since the June S&P has now slightly exceeded our long-term target at 1174.50-1180.50, it looks like we’re headed for at least 1189.50-1195.75; if not to our next MAJOR CLUSTER AT 1204.25-1208.50. However, because everything else continues to suggest that a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE PEAK IS CLOSE(?), we’ll continue to watch for ANY SIGN of a top. Which, at least for now, is probably going to require A DROP IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS. Support for June is at 1183.25/1176.00/1169.00/1161.50/1154.50(good)/1147.00/1139.75(good)/1132.50.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/07/10

SOYBEANS: Hedgers(20%)/traders can sell the May beans/2-mini beans at 9.30 1/4 on-a-stop, w/prot. stop at 9.51 3/4.***CANCEL TRADE IF FIRST ABOVE 9.46.

CORN: Hedgers/traders keep ALL STOPS on short May Corn at 3.62 1/4 (+$3,087).

COTTON: HRT/hedgers(25%) keep the stop on short May cotton at 83.61 (-$705).

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$3,290). LOWER the stop on HALF to 3001, and keep the other stop on the other HALF at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25(-$731). Keep stop at 139.95. SILVER: We are short a May mini silver at 17.935(+$40). Keep stop at 18.535.