SOYBEANS: Since it’s possible to not only label a completed, c-wave rally off the Mar 31 low in May beans, but prices have also held within a couple-cents of our key 9.76-9.87 resistance area,the entire advance from the Feb low could be OVER. In which case, a POWERFUL, "thrust-wave"/[c]-wave decline may finally be underway. However, because we currently have a "quadruple-top", and they’re VERY RARE, I’m going to wait at least another day BEFORE considering a short-position. Note, IF prices can turn back-up here, AND last week’s high is violated, then we ought to have an opportunity to GO SHORT at what should be a BETTER TARGET (for the (e)-wave section of a Contracting Triangle formation), or 10.06-to-10.23 ½. This key area yields the "normal" 61.8%-relationship between waves (c)-and-(e), as well as numerous retracement projections. Support for May is at 9.77-9.73, 8.58-9.51 ½, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½, 9.16 ½ and 8.92-8.80

CORN: While last week’s 3.65 high in the nearby May corn DID NOT OCCUR at ANY of my key resistance projections, Monday’s sharp-drop has clearly confirmed that the rally-off the April 1 low is indeed a "bearish-three". Thus, IF prices now "blow-out" that same low (at 3.43 ½), ONE HECK OF A NEGATIVE PATTERN will be indicated. In this case, we should just now be entering the "heart" of a wave-(3) decline, within a larger, Primary wave-[c]. Of course, IF the May corn can "hold" fairly close to the 3.43 ½ level, then I think there’s still a decent chance that we need to see ONE MORE MODERATE SHOT-UP. Under this count, the OPTIMUM SELL-ZONE should be at the same resistance cluster that produced the Mar 1 and Mar 18 continuation chart highs, or 3.77 ½-to-3.84. Near-term resistance for May corn is at 3.56-3.61 and 3.67-3.70, with the support at 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35, 3.27 3/4-3.24 ½ and 3.14 3/4-3.10.

WHEAT: Since the advance into last week’s 4.91 1/4 high in May wheat not only stopped right at our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER, or 4.87-to-4.94, but the subsequent drop now also appears to have confirmed a completed, a-b-c rally, this pattern looks PRETTY BEARISH. In short, because it’s NOT POSSIBLE (in Elliott terms) to label a completed decline off EITHER the 2008 top, OR the Nov 2009 high, the overall pattern continues to call for A DROP TO AT LEAST THE 4.24-4.10 LEVEL....presumably by the expiration of the May contract (May 14). Of course, IF prices happen to EXCEED last week’s 4.91 1/4 high first, then I guess a substantially higher projections could be confirmed? Resist. is at 4.73-4.76/4.87-4.94, with support at 4.68-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35 and 4.24-4.10.

COTTON: Although the intra-day pattern in cotton now suggests that the rally over the past week or so is part of a BEARISH, a-b-c formation, the overall wave-position is still VERY CRITICAL. IF the May/July cotton can now EXCEED their April 9 lows (-78.00/-79.40), which is my Preferred Count, then we’ll almost certainly confirm that the entire Bull Cycle (from the 2002 low) has ENDED! However, IF prices DON’T violate these areas within the next couple of days, OR a new rally high follows the next pullback, then we may have to conclude that a larger, "five-wave/impulse-wave" is developing off the April 9 low. In which case, BEFORE a major peak is actually at hand, prices will probably try and hit the 2008 top (91.38). Resistance for JULY is at 82.11-82.65/83.59-83.77/84.78-85.09, ,w/support at 81.02-79.76/78.42-77.70/76.27-75.64.

HOGS: While my Preferred, long-term count suggests that the (now nearby) May and June hogs should be EXTREMELY CLOSE TO A MAJOR TOP, I WON’T be able to make a good case for a completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low for AT LEAST another couple of days. Note, that we still need to see a couple-day pullback, and then one more shot-up. Anyhow, as long as MY LAST TWO MAJOR RESISTANCE AREAS HOLD between now and then, or 85.65-86.10 and 87.37-88.50 MAX!, then we’ll be looking to SELL...soon. IF 88.50 is EXCEEDED, however, then we will have to figure that there’s a chance prices will "blow-out" the 2008 top (90.00). Support for May/June is at 86.15/84.97-84.95/83.75-83.45/81.90-81.82.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COCOA: Although the overall wave-count will almost certainly remain BEARISH, regardless of near-term developments, the recent rally in May cocoa has put the immediate pattern in a somewhat "critical" position. As long as our BIG RESISTANCE AREA at 2985-3026 IS NOT EXCEEDED BY MUCH, then our Preferred Count will continue to call for a MAJOR, Primary wave-[5] decline...NOW. IF 3026 is penetrated by much, however, then we’ll have to figure that we may actually be in a Primary wave-[b] advance. In which case, we’ll probably look to re-enter short at the next GOOD RESISTANCE AREA; or 3157-3171. N.t. resist. is at 3079-3096, with the support at 2919-2910, 2848-2834, 2769-2737 and 2690-2682.

SUGAR: Since everything continues to indicate that a LARGER,Primary wave-[2], OR wave-[b] advance is developing-off the April 1 low in sugar, it looks like the nearby contract (May) ought to be headed for the 19.53-19.79 area. Because it’s still too early to tell whether a SINGLE, OR DOUBLE-THREE formation is unfolding, however, the FINAL TARGET could certainly change. In fact, IF the May sugar happens to rally to interim resistance at 18.98-19.16, BEFORE we see another "down-day", I’d be inclined to go ahead and take profits. Note, that we could be in the FINAL, (c)-wave section up now. Anyhow, once it is possible to label a completed, (a)-(b)-(c)rally here, we definitely want to re-enter the short-side. At that point, the pattern will call for another MAJOR DECLINE of Primary-degree. Resistance (May) is at 16.90-16.98, 17.22-17.33,17.64-17.76/18.31-18.53/18.98-19.16,w/support at 16.91-16.78/16.10/15.58-15.10/14.37-13.84

COFFEE:[No change]While I guess it’s possible that the May coffee could still rally all the way back-up to the key 137.00-138.65 resistance area, BEFORE we actually hit the SINGLE-MOST BEARISH POSITION, the drop from the April 5 high sure looks like a "five-wave/impulse-pattern". In which case, BEFORE we see a meaningful, Primary wave-[2] bounce, prices should AT LEAST BLOW-OUT THE FEB LOW OF 126.55. Thus, for now, I’m inclined to keep our stop on shorts just ABOVE my closest area of BIG RESISTANCE, or 132.00-133.60. Then, depending on how the pattern develops over the next few days, we’ll decide how to proceed. IF the 126.55 low is exceeded first, then we may try and pick-the-low of Primary wave-[1]...and then re-enter on the wave-[2] rally. Near-term resistance is at 129.50-130.25, w/support at 129.50-128.95/127.55/126.30-125.35/124.00.

OJ: [No change-see NEW TRADES] Resistance for July is at 137.00-138.15 and 139.40-141.10 (BEST!), w/support at 131.95-131.80/130.15-128.55/126.70-125.10.

SILVER: Since a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low has now been confirmed in the May silver, it certainly looks like a Primary wave-[b] top has been hit. In which case, considering that the expected, Primary wave-[c]decline will not only be of the same-degree as the BIG Dec-Feb drop, but the larger move-off the Dec 2009 top should also be of EQUAL-DEGREE to that of the HUGE 2008 DECLINE, I believe we’ll see a move to UNDER $12.00. Note, that the drop from the 2009 top should be AT LEAST 61.8%-the length of the 2008 move, or about 11.88-11.52. Of course, in the event May silver now "violates" the April 12 high at 18.605, then expect a "re-test" of the 2008 high at 21.185. Resistance for May is now at 17.98-18.17(good), 18.405-18.455, 18.74-18.835, with support at 17.70-17.72/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.185.

STOCKS: Since the June S&P still needs to score a new sell-off low AFTER LATE TUES./EARLY WED., in order to confirm a "timing sell-signal", a MAJOR TOP HAS NOT BEEN INDICATED...YET. However, because this is the first time in 10-weeks that a previous low (from a multi-day decline) has been EXCEEDED, I can definitely make a case for a completed, Primary wave-[5] advance off the Feb low. Thus, IF a "five-down" is confirmed by Tuesday’s close-on the intra-day charts, we may go short...immediately. Resist. is at 1189.50-1195.75, 1204.25-1208.50 1216.00-1221.25, w/support at 1190.50/1183.25(good)/1176.00/1169.00/1161.50.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/20/10

COTTON: ALL TRADERS sold the JULY cotton at 80.62 (-$490). Use a stop here at 83.10. HRT/hedgers are short May from 80.88 (+$515). Keep stop here at 81.70.

SUGAR: HRT are long May sugar at 16.38 (+$593). Keep stop at 15.30 for now, AND also try for profits at 18.95.

COCOA: Traders short 1 May cocoa from 3172 (+$2,300). Keep the stop at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$3,094). Keep stop at 134.00

OJ: Traders can sell the July OJ at 139.35, using a stop at 145.35.

SILVER: We are short a May mini silver at 17.94(+$209). Keep stop at 18.615.