SOYBEANS: Although we could still see significantly higher prices in the beans right-away, IF OUR KEY RESISTANCE AT 10.68-10.74 NEARBY, AND/OR ABOUT 10.78 1/2-10.84 1/2 BASIS MAY...IS EXCEEDED in the next day or two, it looks like we’ve ALREADY FINISHED a “wave-(3)advance” from the Feb 6 low. In which case, based on the duration of the “wave-(2)decline”, which could’ve LASTED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 4 1/2-TO-8 TRADING DAYS, the current “wave-(4)drop” could BOTTOM ANYTIME BETWEEN THURSDAY MARCH 8-AND-TUESDAY MARCH 13. Anyhow, when viewing the current support projections...in conjunction with the size of the “wave-(2)setback”, it looks like THE OPTIMUM SUPPORT/BUY-ZONE IS AT ABOUT THE 10.37-10.29 3/4 LEVEL IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT, AND/OR ABOUT 10.47 1/2-10.40 1/4 BASIS MAY. By the way, for those traders who may have taken partial profits near the high, this would seem to be the IDEAL AREA TO PUT THOSE POSITIONS BACK-ON. Anyhow, under this count, upon the completion of a “wave-(4)decline”, the stage should be set for AT LEAST ONE MORE SIZEABLE ADVANCE, OR “wave-(5)”. Once a “wave-(5)rally” has also ENDED, however, then we could be looking at ONE HECK OF A “CRITICAL JUNCTURE”! At that point, IF we’ve at least reached our MINIMUM TARGET AT 11.20 1/2-11.38 (nearby contract), then we’ll have to strongly consider TAKING PROFITS ON LONGS AND GOING SHORT/HEDGING. However, IF we’ve either NOT REACHED the 11.20 level, at that time, OR another move-up to new rally highs follows JUST a moderate, several-day setback, then the pattern will likely call for A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER,“(9)-wave extension” ,i.e., BEFORE it’s lights-out. There’s also some support for MAY at 10.66 1/2 and 10.59, with the resistance at 10.70, 10.78 1/2-10.84 1/2(good!) and 10.96 1/2-11.02.
CORN: Despite the larger, “wave-(6)” and “wave-(4)pullbacks” that have occurred over the past week or so in the wheat and soybeans, respectively, the corn market IS STILL-IN it’s “wave-(3)advance”...from the Jan 12 low. Thus, UNTIL we see a moderate, 7-TO-9 TRADING DAY, “wave-(4)setback” (at some point?), and then A SIZEABLE, “wave-(5)RALLY”, the pattern here will REMAIN BULLISH. In fact, IF we happen to witness A STRONG CLOSE-ABOVE KEY RESISTANCE AT THE 3.80-3.86 LEVEL IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT, AND/OR ABOUT 3.88-TO-3.94 BASIS MAY, BEFORE we see a larger, “wave-(4)correction”, then prices could first advance to our next higher resistance area. Which, as you know, IS BETWEEN 3.94 1/2-AND-4.06 1/2 IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT, AND/OR ABOUT 4.02 1/2-4.14 1/2 BASIS MAY. Given this scenario, I imagine the eventual objective for the “wave-(5)section up” will be AT EITHER 4.16-4.18, OR 4.25-4.29 1/2 BASIS THE NEARBY CONTRACT? At any rate, once IT IS possible to label A COMPLETED, “(5)-wave/[c]-wave rally” off the Dec “continuation chart” low, then we probably WILL WANT TO GO SHORT AND/OR AT LEAST LIGHTLY HEDGE. However, if that “juncture” does NOT result in a bearish, “5-wave drop”, OR another move-up to new rally highs follows, then we could be looking at A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER, “(9)-WAVE EXTENSION”! Support for MAY is at 3.92 ½, 3.83 1/4-3.79 3/4(good), 3.74-3.73(max) and 3.68 ½-3.67.
WHEAT: Given that I can now make a case for A COMPLETED, “(5)-wave rally” off the Dec 2017 low in the MAY wheat; at the March 2 high of 5.18 1/2, there’s A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE that we’ve also finished an initial, “[a]-wave”. In which case, IF we now happen to witness A DECLINE IN EXCESS OF 10-TRADING DAYS, then we could actually REMAIN in 1-month plus, “Primary wave-[b]decline”, BEFORE the larger uptrend resumes? That said, however, the FAR MORE LIKELY SCENARIO here is that we’ve ONLY FINISHED EITHER a “wave-1-of-(5)section up”, OR a “wave-(5)advance”...from the Feb 22 low. Given this first count, which will be confirmed IF the 5.18 1/2 high is TAKEN-OUT in the next day or two, then we’ll still need to trace-out waves “3-up”, “4-down” and then “5-up”, BEFORE we’ll actually complete the “wave-(5)advance” from the Feb 22 low. If a new rally high IS NOT hit in the next day or two, however, then we’ll have to figure that we’ve already started A MODERATELY LARGER, “wave-(6)setback”. Given this count, we should REMAIN in a sideways-to-lower pattern into about EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE KEY SUPPORT AREAS AT 4.88-4.84 AND 4.73 ½-4.72 ½ NEARBY, AND/OR ABOUT 4.93-4.88 AND/OR 4.79 1/2-4.77 1/2 BASIS MAY. Upon the completion of a “wave-(6)drop”, however, this count could be REALLY BULLISH...as we may still need to trace-out waves “(7)-up”, “(8)-down” and then “(9)-up”. Anyhow, either way, THE BEST/MINIMUM TARGET REMAINS AT 5.79 3/4-5.89 ½. Near-term resistance for MAY is at 5.02-5.07(good/pivotal?), 5.17 1/2 and 5.23-5.28 1/2(good).
COTTON: Since the recent “penetration” of May 2017 “continuation chart” high at 87.18 in cotton has presumably CONFIRMED that the advance-off the October 2017 low (66.84) is a “Primary wave-[c]”, of the same-degree as the entire, March 2016-to-May 2017 rally (55.66-to-87.18), it looks like we’re going to see CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRICES? Note, because this count indicates that we’re currently in JUST the “wave-(3)-of-[c]section”, we still need to trace-out A MULTI-WEEK, “wave-(4)setback” (at some point?), and then stage at least ONE MORE SIZEABLE RALLY, or “wave-(5)”. Anyhow, as it stands right now, my guess is that THE MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET IS BETWEEN 96.09-AND-98.01. This KEY AREA yields a “23.6%-retracement” from the 2011 high, the March 2014 peak, AND the “EQUAL WAVES [a]-and-[c]” projection. So, IF it’s possible to label a completed, “wave-[c]advance”...when this area is hit, we’ll look to RE-ENTER THE SHORT-SIDE AND/OR HEDGES. If not, however, then we’ll likely rally to our NEXT HIGHER AREA AT 102.35-103.66? Near-term resistance is at 84.47-85.13, 86.44-86.77 and 87.51-88.37(good),with support at 84.19, 82.57-82.37 and 81.51-80.50(key).
HOGS: Although it certainly looked like we had confirmed a completed, “a-b-c DECLINE” from the Feb 5 “continuation chart” high in the nearby APRIL hogs, the last bounce DID NOT produce a “bullish-five”. Thus, since we’ve also dropped to new sell-off lows, THE BEST COUNT now indicates that we’re probably witnessing a “Double-Three Decline” from the Feb 5 high...instead. In which case, based on the “duration” of the first, “a-b-c section down”, it now looks like THE OPTIMUM TIME FOR A SIGNIFICANT LOW...IS BETWEEN NOW-AND-EARLY FRIDAY MARCH 9. That is the point at which the second, “a-b-c decline” from the Feb 26 high will EQUAL the duration of the first. Anyhow, as long as a drop to new sell-off lows DOES NOT OCCUR AFTER FRIDAY, then the best count here will indicate that we’ve hit A SIGNIFICANT, “(x)-wave LOW”. In which case, the stage should be set for A SUBSTANTIAL, “(a)-wave RALLY”; presumably yielding a move back-up to AT LEAST THE 75.90-76.30 LEVEL. IF a drop to new sell-off lows DOES occur after Friday, however, then all-bests-are-off (near-term). Support for APRIL is at 67.25-66.70(good), 65.95-65.60(good/best?) and 64.95-64.82 (good/max?).
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
STOCKS: Again, since it looks like there’s SLIGHTLY BETTER than a 50%-chance that the Feb 27 high at 2795.00 in the JUNE Mini S&P has marked the END of a “(b)-wave rally” from the Feb 6 or Feb 9 low, aggressive traders MAY HAVE GONE LIGHTLY SHORT near Tuesday’s 2739.00 high? If so, the stop probably needs to at least GO ABOVE GOOD RESISTANCE AT 2761.75-2765.00? In essence, If a “wave-(c)decline” HAS indeed started, then it should REMAIN IN FORCE...UNTIL WE AT LEAST REACH OUR MINIMUM TARGET AT THE 2467.50-2456.00 LEVEL. The BEST, longer-term objective, however, may well be BETWEEN 2394.00-AND-2356.25? Conversely, however, in the event the current setback FAILS to produce a larger, “5-wave decline”, within the next week or so (?), then we’ll have to figure that the Feb 27 high has ONLY finished an initial, “wave-a”, OR “a-b-c section up”. In this event, we ought to have A REALLY GOOD SELLING OPPORTUNITY, AFTER a final, “wave-c”, OR “a-b-c advance” has been traced-out. Given this scenario, we should at least RE-TEST OUR MINIMUM TARGET AT THE 2790.00-2796.00 AREA IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT. There’s also resistance for JUNE is at 2716.50-2719.00, 2729.00, 2737.25, 2749.25 and 2779.50, with the support at 2725.50-2722.25, 2703.50-2698.50, 2684.25-2673.75, 2654.00-2649.00, 2629.50-2622.50 (good), 2604.25, 2591.75, 2564.00-2536.00(good/key!), 2504.25 and 2591.75-2584.00.
SILVER: Although we HAVE NOT actually confirmed a bullish, “5-wave rally” off the March 1 low at 16.16 in the MAY silver (yet?), the recent up-move appears large enough to have CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, “[e]-wave decline”...from the Jan 25 peak? Thus, since this count implies that we could now be in the initial stages of a potentially POWERFUL, “THRUST-WAVE ADVANCE”, the “risk/reward” factor alone suggests that we should take A SHOT AT THE LONG-SIDE. Note, IF we have indeed started a “CYCLE-WAVE C ADVANCE”, of the same-degree as the 2015-2016, “CYCLE-WAVE A RALLY”, then the related calculations therein, coupled with the “Thrust-Wave” projection...CALL FOR A MINIMUM,UPSIDE TARGET AT 22.08-TO-22.78. That said, however, because we’ve clearly been in a “Triangle” for quite some time now, AND “Triangles” usually produce A LOT of “3-wave” movements in BOTH directions, it’s certainly possibly that we’ve NOT YET reached the optimum time to re-enter long? In essence, IF we DON’T get a “5-up” here, then we’ll have to figure that we still need to AT LEAST RE-TEST KEY SUPPORT AT ABOUT THE 16.17-15.96 LEVEL. And, of course, if the drop from the Jan 25 high is a larger, but final, “Primary wave-[c]”, then we could also still see a move to OUR MAX SUPPORT-ZONE AT 14.56-14.20? Near-term support is at 16.63-16.42, with resistance at 16.62-16.73, 16.88-17.16(good/key?) and 17.40-17.59.
CRUDE OIL: Since I’m estimating that there’s ABOUT A 65%-CHANCE that the Jan “continuation chart” high at 66.66 in the Crude Oil has marked the END of a “Primary wave-ADVANCE”...from the June 2017 low, our main interest right now is on the SHORT-SIDE. Note, once we’ve finished a “wave-(b)rally” from the Feb 9 low, then the stage should be set for AT LEAST ONE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DECLINE, or “wave-(c)”. In which case, based on current projections, it looks like the BEST/MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET WILL BE AT THE 57.08-55.81 LEVEL. The main problem at present, however, is that the initial advance-off the Feb 9 low appears to have produced at least a moderately BULLISH, “5-wave” pattern? Consequently, since this development implies that the setback from the Feb 26 high is JUST a “b-wave correction”, the optimum time to go short has presumably NOT been reached (yet?). However, if this interpretation is correct, then we should be VERY CLOSE to the “wave-b low” now? Thus,, while aggressive traders could attempt a quick-play on the long-side, I’m more inclined to wait for THE FINAL, “wave-c ADVANCE” to finish ,i.e., BEFORE GOING SHORT. Resistance for APRIL is at 61.10-61.29, 62.05-62.40(good), 63.07-63.51(good) and 64.62, with support at 60.80-60.60(good/key!) 59.52, 59.11-58.43(good) and 57.42.
COFFEE: Considering that the long-term count in coffee continues to strongly indicate that the Jan 2016 AND/OR June 2017 lows at 111.05 and 113.00...HAVE MARKED THE LOWEST POINTS that are apt to be hit under the current, “Contracting Triangle” formation, the “risk/reward” here certainly seems to GREATLY FAVOR THE LONG-SIDE! Note, the nearby contract is now WITHIN ABOUT 6.00-TO-8.00-CENTS OF THESE MAX AREAS. Whereas, once we finally BREAK-OUT through the top of the “Triangle” formation, the upside potential could be UNLIMITED! That said, however, because the short-term pattern DOES suggest that we’re probably STILL-IN A SOMEWHAT LARGER, BUT FINAL, “wave-[c]DECLINE”...from the Aug/Sept 2017 highs, I’d like to see ONE MORE DROP to new sell-off lows (-116.50 nearby contract), BEFORE re-entering long. Note, as it stands right now, IF one more drop to new sell-off low DOES occur, BEFORE we see a bigger rally, then I’ll presumably be able to make A GOOD CASE FOR A COMPLETED, “Diagonal Triangle”. Anyhow, based on the lower boundary-line from the “Diagonal Triangle”, AND numerous other projections, it looks like THE BEST BUY-Z0NE IS AT 116.40-TO-116.10 NEARBY, AND/OR ABOUT 117.75-117.45 BASIS MAY. The MAX SUPPORT, however, SHOULD BE AT 114.75-113.65 NEARBY, AND/OR ABOUT 116.10-115.00 BASIS MAY. Resistance is at 120.80, 122.15, 123.50-124.50(good/key?), 126.20 and 127.55.
COCOA: While recent developments in the cocoa have probably NEGATED our scenario of “A MAJOR, BUT FINAL, wave--of-C DECLINE”, it is interesting to note...that the overall advance from the June 2017 low is still JUST a “(3)-wave pattern”. Thus, once the wave-(3)”, OR “wave-(c)section up” from the Dec 2017 low has ended, a rather “CRITICAL JUNCTURE” will be at hand. At that time, IF a sizeable, “5-wave decline” happens to follow, then we’d certainly have to reconsider our original count. However, if that “juncture” ONLY results in a “3-wave drop”, and/or another move-up to new rally highs follows, then we’ll STRONGLY CONFIRM A SUBSTANTIALLY LARGER UP-MOVE...LONGER-TERM. At any rate, since it looks like the “wave-(3)”, OR “wave-(c)advance” from the Dec low is producing a “9-wave extension”, we probably still need to see ABOUT A 4-TO-6-TRADING DAY, “wave-8 pullback” (at some point?), and then A FINAL, “wave-9 advance” ,i.e., BEFORE the “CRITICAL JUNCTURE” is at hand. Resistance is 2471-2489(good), 2541-2555 and 2610, with support at 2451-2434 and 2372-2343 (good).
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 03/09/18
SOYBEANS: HRT are long MAY beans at 10.45(+$3,587 w/rlvr). Use a stop at 10.23.
WHEAT: HRT are long MAY wheat at 4.66(+$2,300 w/rlvr). Keep the stop at 4.77.
HOGS: HRT can buy the APRIL hogs at 66.05, using a stop at 63.80.
SILVER: HRT are long a MAY mini silver at 16.755(-$270). Keep the stop at 16.265.
COFFEE: HRT can buy the MAY
coffee at 117.85, using a stop at 112.85.
DISCLAIMER Futures and Option trading involves substantial risk and is not a suitable investment for all types of investors. This Futures Market Report is strictly the opinion of its writer. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Prices displayed in this written update were taken from real-time price quotes that took into account all known activity up to the point in time the price displayed was quoted. Brent Harris is registered as an Associated Person of Southwest Futures, Inc.