SOYBEANS: Given that the Jan 6-Jan 15 rally on the “continuation chart” LASTED FOR 8 ½-TRADING DAYS in the beans, whereas, the most recent Feb 3-to-Feb 21 advance TOOK ABOUT 13 ½-TRADING DAYS to complete, I really CAN’T TELL if the overall decline from the Jan 2 high is producing a highly-bearish, “(5)-wave” pattern? However, IF the nearby MARCH beans “blow-out” the Feb 3 low at 8.68 3/4, preferably within the next couple days, then I think we WILL be able to make a fairly good case for a “bearish-five”. In any event, as it stands right now, as long as the nearby contract HOLDS KEY RESISTANCE AT THE 8.98 ½-9.03 LEVEL, OR ABOUT *9.08 ½-TO-9.13 BASIS MAY, traders and producers should probably STAY SHORT AND/OR HEDGED. In essence, IF we are indeed in the initial, “Primary wave-[1]-of-C SECTION DOWN” here, then the nearby contract should DROP TO AT LEAST THE 8.59-8.54 ½ AREA; IF NOT TO 8.38-8.31 ½...BEFORE the stage might be set for a larger, “wave-[2]corrective-rally”. Given this scenario, however, once a “wave-[2]advance” ENDS, then the stage should be set for an even MORE NEGATIVE, “wave-[3]DECLINE”. Of course, on the other hand, IF the nearby contract FIRST EXCEEDS THE 8.98 ½-9.03 RESISTANCE AREA, then we’ll have to figure that we still need to trace-out A FINAL, “[c]-wave RALLY”. In which case, prices will presumably stage ONE MORE TEST OF OUR 9.44 ½-9.53 OBJECTIVE...BE-FORE A REALLY BEARISH-POSITION is actually at hand! Near-term resistance for MAY is at 8.93 3/4-8.96 1/4, 9.03 3/4 and 9.08 ½-9.13(good/critical!), with near-term support at 8.90, 8.81-8.80(good) and 8.70-8.65(good).
CORN: [No change] Although BOTH the wheat and beans came extremely close to triggering at least moderate “buy-signals” last week, Monday’s BIG DROP obviously prevented that from happening. By the same token, however, because the nearby MARCH corn has now also SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED KEY SUPPORT...AT THE 3.75 ½-3.72 LEVEL, we may have CONFIRMED that the Jan 23 high at 3.94 HAS MARKED THE END of a “wave-(b)ADVANCE”...from the Sept 2019 low ,i.e., via the “continuation chart”. In which case, since this count implies that we’re now in a “wave-3-of-c DECLINE”, we could be looking at A FAIRLY NEGATIVE COUNT. Given this scenario, by the time we’ve traced-out a larger, “5-or-9-wave DROP” from the Jan 23 high, my “projection” analysis continues to indicate that the nearby contract WILL REACH THE 3.54 3/4-3.45 ½ SUPPORT AREA. At which point, IF it’s possible to label A COMPLETED, “(a)-(b)-(c)DECLINE” from the June 2019 high, then we should be looking at A RATHER BULLISH-POSITION. If it’s EITHER NOT possible to label a completed drop, however, OR the 2019 low at 3.35 ½ IS VIOLATED, then we will confirm that we’ve ALREADY FINISHED the “CYCLE-WAVE-B ADVANCE” from the 2016 low. Which, would be QUITE BEARISH! Finally, in the event the corn happens to produce a near immediate, “5-wave RALLY” INSTEAD, then there’s still a chance that we’ll need to stage A FINAL, “wave-c ADVANCE” TO THE 4.03 3/4-4.07 ½ LEVEL. Near-term resistance is at 3.75, 3.79-3.80 3/4(good) and 3.86, with the support at 3.72, 3.65 and 3.60-3.59. ADD 4 1/4-CENTS FOR MAY.
WHEAT: Although we “technically” still need to see another drop to new sell-off lows in the MAY wheat; AFTER the next 3-day plus rally ends, in order to CONFIRM A BEARISH, “(5)-wave DECLINE” off the Jan high, recent “developments” continue to indicate that we should be SHORT AND/OR HEDGED here. In essence, because the decline from the Jan peak has now EXCEEDED BOTH the “size” and “duration” of the Oct-Nov decline, AND we’ve also OVERLAPPED the Oct high, it sure looks like we have FINISHED EITHER A “Single”, OR “Triple-Three Advance” from the 2016 low. In which case, since this count implies that we’re at least in down-move that’s of the same-degree as the entire, 2016-2020 advance, the LEAST BEARISH COUNT would now call for A SUBSTANTIAL, “[a]-[b]-[c]DECLINE”. Anyhow, whether we’re in an INITIAL, “Primary wave-[1]”, OR “wave-[a]DROP” here, my “projection” analysis continues to indicate that we should be HEADED FOR AT LEAST THE 4.35 ½-4.31 LEVEL. Once this “phase” has ended, however, then we could see A DECENT, 1-MONTH PLUS RALLY, BEFORE the stage will be set for AT LEAST ONE MORE BIG DROP, OR “wave-[c]”. Finally, in the event KEY RESISTANCE AT 5.65 3/4-5.71 IS EXCEEDED FIRST, WHICH CURRENTLY EQUATES TO ABOUT 5.62 1/4-5.67 ½ IN MAY WHEAT, then we may still need to trace-out A FINAL, “wave-(5)ADVANCE”...TO AT LEAST THE 5.87-5.94 3/4 LEVEL? Near-term resistance for MAY is at 5.41-5.42 and 5.53-5.54, with support at 5.32, 5.26-5.19 ½(good) and 5.13 ½.
COTTON: Since this week’s drop to new sell-off lows in the cotton certainly appears to have CONFIRMED that the down-move from the Jan high...IS producing a “(5)-or-(9)-wave/Impulse-Pattern”, we’ve presumably ALSO CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, “Primary wave-[2]ADVANCE”...from the August 2019 low. In which case, because this count implies that we’re now in a “Primary wave-[3]DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the entire, 2018-2019 “wave-[1]DROP”, we could be looking at A VERY NEGATIVE-POSITION! In essence, because “[3]rd-waves” are usually at least “61.8%-the size” of their “wave-[1]” counterpart, the implication here is that we could now be HEADED FOR THE 47.10-45.91 LEVEL. Which, also yields the KEY, “90.9%-retracement” calculation from the 2001 low. However, in the event prices happen to FIRST POST A STRONG CLOSE-ABOVE THE 68.15-68.79 RESISTANCE AREA IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT, AND/OR ABOUT 68.25-68.89 BASIS MAY, then traders may want to TAKE PROFITS ON SHORTS? Given this scenario, we could see ONE MORE TEST of the same key resistance area that produced the Jan high at 71.96; ACTUALLY NOW AT 71.15-TO-71.84 (both contracts?). Near-term resistance for MAY is at 66.70-66.85, with the support at 66.10, 65.15-65.05(good) and 64.03-63.95.
HOGS: Although my KEY RESISTANCE for the APRIL hogs remains at the “30.9%-38.2%-retracement combination” from the 2014 and 2019 highs, OR 69.05-69.90, AFTER the recent drop, I’m not so sure I’d want to see prices advance to this area now? Thus, as far as producers are concerned, it now looks like THE BEST AREAS GO SHORT ARE AT 66.10-66.52 AND 67.35-67.92. In any event, as long as these areas HOLD here, my Preferred Count will indicate that we’re STILL-IN a larger, “Double-Three Decline”...from the May 2019 high. In which case, since this interpretation implies that we still need to trace-out A FINAL ,“wave-[c] DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the Jan 2-to-Feb 3 drop, we could see A SUBSTANTIAL DECLINE over the next month or more. Given this scenario, by the time we get to LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL...the APRIL hogs should at least TRADE-BELOW the Feb 3 “continuation chart” LOW AT 54.67 (which, was the low from the now expired FEB contract). Note, that’s the point at which the down-move from the Jan 2 high will be ABOUT EQUAL to the “duration” of the May-August 2019 drop. In the event the aforementioned resistance areas are EXCEEDED FIRST, however, OR it becomes apparent that we’re NOT in a “wave-[c]DECLINE”, then we’ll have to figure that we’ve ALREADY STARTED A SEVERAL-MONTH, “CYCLE-WAVE-B ADVANCE”. Support is at 64.55-64.45, 62.87-62.67(good), 61.22-61.02(good) and 59.55.
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR STOCKS: Considering that the drop from the Feb 20 high of 3397.50 in the MARCH Mini S&P has obviously “blown-out” the Jan 31 low at 3212.75, we’ve presumably CONFIRMED that we’re actually in A LARGER SETBACK, of the same-degree as the “wave-(2)DECLINE”...which occurred between May-and-Oct of last year. In which case, since this “correction” LASTED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3-AND-5-MONTHS, it is possible that we could REMAIN in a “wave-(4)correction/decline” for A SIMILAR DURATION? However, because we HAVEN’T actually witnessed a sustained decline IN EXCESS OF 3-MONTHS...SINCE 2015, I would NOT be surprised if the final low was hit in just the next several weeks? Anyhow, based on current projec-tions, it looks like THE KEY, LONG-TERM SUPPORT AREA HERE...IS BETWEEN 2999.25-AND-2984.50. This area yields the “14.58%-38.2%-retracement combination” from the 2009 and 2018 lows, AND a “depreciation” of 11.795% from the Feb 20 high. So, IF it’s possible to label A COMPLETED, “Single”, OR “Double-Three Decline”...when this area is hit, we’ll look to GO LIGHTLY LONG. Once a “wave-(4)DECLINE” ENDS, then the stage should be set for SUBSTANTIAL, “wave-(5)RALLY”! Near-term support is at 3142.50, 3120.50-3113.50, 3091.50, 3075.25-3063.50 and 3044.25-3037.25(good), with the resistance at 3117.25, 3126.50, 3146.75-3159.50(good), 3172.50-3180.50, 3199.00-3201.75(good) and 3218.00.
SILVER: Since we’ve now CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, “3-wave RALLY” off the Jan 29 low in the MAY silver; at the Feb 24 high of 19.005, AND the subsequent drop is clearly TOO BIG to be just a small-degree, “wave-4", we’ve presumably CONFIRMED that we’re still-in a “wave-(2)SETBACK”...from the Jan high. Thus, while it’s still possible that prices could DROP TO OUR MAX SUPPORT AT THE 17.21-16.97 LEVEL IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT, AND/OR ABOUT 17.285-17.055 BASIS MAY, I have no intention of risking a long-position that far. Note, assuming we’re now in A FINAL, “wave-c DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the Jan 8-Jan 29, “wave-a DROP”, I’m guessing that prices will HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 17.845-17.67 SUPPORT-ZONE IN THE MARCH SILVER, AND/OR ABOUT 17.92-TO-17.745 BASIS MAY. Note, this area yields the KEY, “76.4%-times wave-a” projection, AND A LOT of other calculations from the “continuation chart”. Anyhow, IF this count is right, A STRONG, “wave-(3)ADVANCE”...should begin within the next couple of days. In which case, it still looks like the nearby contract will REACH AT LEAST THE 19.61-19.725 RESISTANCE AREA, BEFORE we might witness a 1-MONTH PLUS, “wave-(4)PULLBACK”. In the event a sharp, “5-wave RALLY” DOES NOT emerge in the next few days, however, then I’ll get REAL CONCERNED! Near-term resistance for MAY is at 17.925-18.055, 18.42-18.485, 18.91-18.985(good/key), and 19.325. There’s also support at 17.645-17.595 and 17.465-17.395(max?).
CRUDE: [SEE CHART] Again, since the Feb 20 high at 54.66 in the APRIL Crude Oil occurred right at the mid-point of our KEY, “23.6%-34.55%-30.9%-retracement/resistance combination” from the 2008, 2018 and 2020 highs; AT THE 54.29-54.90 LEVEL, AND a sharp, “5-wave DROP” has followed, it certainly looks like we have indeed FINISHED a “wave-(2)RALLY”. In which case, since this count implies that we’re now in a “wave-(3)DECLINE”, of the same-degree as the BIG, Jan-Feb, “wave-(1)SECTION DOWN”, we could obviously be looking at A VERY NEGATIVE COUNT! Note, because BOTH the “61.8%-times wave-[a]”, AND the “61.8%-times wave-(1)” projections...OCCUR BETWEEN 44.40-AND-44.30, there’s a reasonable chance that JUST the “wave-(3)-of-[c]DROP” will reach our longstanding, MINIMUM TARGET; ACTUALLY AT THE 45.50-44.30 LEVEL. In which case, since this count implies that we’ll still need to trace-out waves “(4)-up” (at some point?), and then “(5)-DOWN”, it’s possible that prices will end-up FALLING TO OUR MAX SUPPORT...AT THE 40.83-39.36 LEVEL? Longer-term, however, once we’ve FINISHED a “Single”, OR “Double-Three Decline” from the Oct 2018 high, then we ought to have GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY! At that point, the stage should be set for A MAJOR, “CYCLE-WAVE-C ADVANCE”. Near-term resistance is at 50.56, 51.92(good), 52.61 and 53.29, with support at 50.15, 49.54, 48.19-47.52(good) and 46.85.
COFFEE: While the “pressure” from A LOT of the outside markets here could prove to be TOO MUCH for the coffee, the “pattern” continues to indicate the up-move from the Feb 6 low should produce AT LEAST a “(b)-wave”, of the same-degree as the Dec-Feb drop; IF NOT A FAR MORE BULLISH, “Primary wave-[c]”. At this point, however, IF we’re going get a rally that is “tradeable” here, then the MAY coffee will somehow need to quickly stage a “wave-3", OR “wave-c ADVANCE”...TO ABOVE THE FEB 18 HIGH AT 113.80? If so, my “projection” analysis will presumably continue to call for A RALLY TO AT LEAST THE 132.05-133.30 LEVEL. Note, this area yields the “30.9%-21.345%-85.4%-retracement combination” from the 1977, 2011 and 2019 highs, AND numerous “appreciation” from past lows. In the event we end-up getting a larger, “(5)-wave ADVANCE” off the Feb 6 low, however, then that will imply that we’ve actually finished A FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT, “Primary wave-[b]DECLINE”...from the Dec 2019 high. Under this count, the KEY, “Equal Waves [a]-and-[c]” projection, AND numerous other calcu-lations...suggest that THE MINIMUM TARGET WILL BE BETWEEN 149.45-AND-154.55. Near-term resistance is at 111.10, 112.75-113.25(good), 114.20 and 115.30-116.10, with support at 110.50-109.50, 107.90-107.25,105.80-104.30(key?) and 102.60.
COCOA: IF BOTH the MARCH and MAY cocoa can REMAIN in a sideways-to-lower pattern for at least another week or two, then there’s a reasonable chance that we’re in a “wave-(4)”, of the same-degree as the Nov-Dec drop. In which case, once the next move-up to new highs occurs...we could be in THE FINAL, “wave-(5)-of-[c]SECTION UP”. Given this scenario, however, IF the nearby contract posts A STRONG CLOSE-ABOVE OUR KEY, 3026-3058 RESISTANCE AREA, then prices could “blow-off” to either or our two next higher resistance levels...AT 3160-3165, AND/OR 3301-3304. Of course, on the other hand, IF we end-up HOLDING our longstanding, OPTIMUM TARGET AT 3026-3058, then we’d obviously be looking to go short there. At any rate, regardless, because the overall advance from the 2017 low (1770) continues to look like A BEARISH, “[3]-wave” pattern, once it’s possible to label EITHER a completed, “Single”, OR “Double-Three”, we ought to have A VERY GOOD SELLING OPPORTUNITY! At that point, my guess is that we’ll be HEADED FOR THE 2017 LOW AT 1770? Resistance for MAY is at 2749, 2784, 2818(good) and 2853, with the support at 2747 and 2723-2721(good) and 2672.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS
02/27/2020 BEANS: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MAY beans at 8.83 ½ (+$2,550 w/rollover). Use a stop at *9.16 1/4.
WHEAT: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MAY wheat at 5.37 (+$1,250 w/rollover). Use a stop at 5.69 1/4.
COTTON: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MAY cotton at 67.00 (+$2,035 w/rollover). Keep the stop at 70.31.
SILVER: HRT rolled-out of a long MARCH Mini Silver at about 18.00 for a $437 profit, and are now long a MAY Mini silver at 18.075. Keep the stop at 17.35.
CRUDE OIL: HRT are short an APRIL Mini Crude at 54.30(+$2,900). Use a stop at 52.725
COFFEE: HRT are long MAY coffee at 106.65 (+$1,500). Keep the stop at 104.00.
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