SOYBEANS: Since the "wave-(5)DECLINE from the March 21 high of 12.26 3/4 in the MAY beans is now getting fairly close to the upper-end of our MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET…BETWEEN 11.17-AND-10.98, we could HIT A MAJOR LOW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS? However, because the Feb 29 "wave-LOW" at 11.15 on the "continuation chart"…ALREADY HIT this sup-port-zone, it 's also quite possible that we 'll end-up falling to OUR NEXT LOWER SUPPORT LEVEL; AT 10.83-10.72 1/2? Note, these two areas possess the "50%-67.275%-AND-51.475%-70.925%-retracement combinations" from the 1999 and 2019 lows, AND depreciations of 38.2%/38.2%/30.9%-AND-39.67%/39.67%/32.725% from the 2012, 2022 and July 2023 highs. So, as long as we HOLD OUR CLOSEST AREA OF GOOD RESISTANCE; NOW AT 11.68-TO-11.79, WE 'LL STAY SHORT. This level yields the "38.2%-9.1%-38.2%-retracement combination" from the 2012, 2022 and March 2024 highs, AND "appreciations" 50%, 5.568% and 2.216% from the 2019, Feb 2024 and April 2024 lows. At any rate, assuming we 're able to CONFIRM A COMPLETED, "wave-(5)DECLINE" from the March top…when either of these areas are reached, then we 'll also be able to make A STRONG CASE FOR A COMPLETED, "[a]-[b]-[c]DECLINE" from the 2022 peak. At which time, the least bullish count will call for A SUBSTANTIAL, 6-TO-9-MONTH PLUS, "B-wave RALLY", of the same-degree as the 2022-2024 decline. In the event this "juncture" is followed by an initial, "5-wave RALLY", how-ever, then we could also be looking at A FAR MORE BULLISH COUNT! Near-term support is at 11.46-11.36(good?). There 's also resistance at 11.48-11.53 1/2, 11.81-11.83 and 11.91-11.98(good). ADD 14 1/2-CENTS JULY.

CORN: Given that ALL of the necessary waves for a potentially COMPLE-TED, "SC-Wave-(C)DECLINE" from the 2022 high ARE already "in place" in the corn; at the Feb "continuation chart" low OF 3.94 1/2, it 's quite possible that A MAJOR UP-MOVE…IS UNDER WAY? For now, however, because the initial advance-off said bottom has so far ONLY produced a potentially BEARISH,"(3)-wave" pattern, my SLIGHTLY Preferred Count continues to suggest that we still need to see A FINAL DROP TO NEW LOWS (-3.94 1/2). Given this scenario, based on the proximity of the "80.9%-times SC-Wave-(A)" projection, an"83.15%-retracement" from the 2020 bottom, AND "depreciations" of 54.425%, 52.95% and 13.1875% from 2012, 2022 and March 2024 highs, my guess is that the MAY AND/OR JULY CON-TRACTS…COULD FALL TO THE 3.89-3.84 1/2 LEVEL. On the other hand, however, if it EITHER becomes apparent that the advance-off the Feb low is NOT just a "CORRECTIVE-RALLY", OR KEY RESISTANCE AT 4.56 1/2-TO-4.69…IS TAKEN-0UT, then we 'd presumably have to figure that we have indeed HIT THE FINAL LOW. Note, this zone yields the 30.9%-14.58%-retracement combination from the 2012 and 2022 highs, AND appreciations of 55.9% and 16.835% from the 2020 and 2024 lows. At any rate, either way, once we 've CONFIRMED A COMPLETED,"SC-Wave-(C)DECLINE" from the 2022 top, then that SHOULD ALSO MARK THE END OF THE "Bear-Cycle" from the 2012 high (8.43 3/4). At which point, we should see AT LEAST A MAJOR, 1-YEAR PLUS ADVANCE; IF NOT THE START OF A NEW"BULL-MARKET! Near-term resistance is at 4.33 1/2 and 4.45 1/2-4.48 1/2(good), with near-term support at 4.26-4.22(good) and 4.13 ½-4.09(good). +12 1/2-CENTS JULY.

WHEAT: While the "duration" of the setback from the April 5 high of 5.74 3/4 in the MAY wheat is a bit LONGER than I would have preferred, the BEST COUNT presumably still indicates that the March "continuation chart" low AT 5.19 1/2…HAS ALREADY MARKED THE END of the "Cycle-wave-A DECLINE" from the 2022 top. Thus, provided we HOLD INTERIM SUPPORT…BE-TWEEN ABOUT 5.45-AND-5.35, we 'll STAY LONG. Given this scenario, which implies that we 're in the early stages of A MAJOR, "B-wave ADVANCE", of the same-degree as the 2022-2024 drop, we ought to REMAIN IN A GENERAL UPTREND…FOR AT LEAST 6-TO-9-MONTHS. Based on the proximity of the KEY, "14.58%-50%-AND-23.6%-85.4%-retracement combinations" from the 2022 and July 2023 highs, AND "appreciations" of 80.9%/25.425%-AND-105.568%/41.15% from the 2016 and 2024 lows, this scenario continues to point to A NEAR-TERM TARGET…AT ABOUT 6.49-6.53; with the eventual, "wave-[a]OBJECTIVE"; AT ABOUT THE 7.31-7.39 LEVEL? In the event the 5.45-5.35 SUPPORT…IS VIOLATED FIRST, however, then we 'll have to figure that we still need to trace-out A FINAL, "wave-[9]DECLINE"…TO OUR MAX TARGET AT 5.18 1/2-5.06 (ADD 15 1/2-CENTS FOR JULY). Which, yields the "76.4%-85.4%-retracement combination" from the 1999 and 2016 lows, AND "depreciations" of 63.625%, 34.55%, 19.1%, 16.835% AND 9.1% from the 2022, July 2023, Dec 2023, Jan 2024 and March 2024 highs. There 's also support at 5.50 ½ and 5.27 ½, with the near-term resistance at 5.56, 5.67-5.70(good/key), 5.81 1/2-5.87 1/2 and 5.96-6.01(good/key?).

COTTON: Again, since the Feb top at 103.80 in the MAY cotton occurred right at our KEY, 103.09-103.75 RESISTANCE AREA, which possesses the "138.2%-times wave-(a)" projection, the "30.9%-38.2%-retracement com-bination" from the 2011 and 2022 highs, AND A LOT of "appreciations", AND a "5-wave DECLINE" appears to have followed, we 've likely CONFIRM-ED A COMPLETED, "[b]-wave RALLY" from the 2022 low. In which case, since this count implies that we 're currently in JUST the "wave-(3)-of-[c]SECTION DOWN", we 'll hopefully soon have a chance to SELL A DE-CENT, 1-WEEK PLUS, "wave-(4)CORRECTIVE-RALLY", of the same-degree as the March 4-to-March 8 advance? Overall, however, if this count is correct, by the time we 've traced-out a larger, "(5)-OR-(9)-wave/[c]-wave DROP" from the Feb 2024 peak, of the same-degree as the May-Oct 2022 decline…THE NEARBY CONTRACT OUGHT TO REACH EITHER OF OUR OPTIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGETS; AT 67.66-66.00 AND/OR 62.69-61.35? Note, these areas possess the "80.9%-83.15%-AND-83.15%-88.15%-retracement combinations" from the 2001 and 2020 lows, AND "depreciations" of 70.925%/57.375%-AND-72.75%/60.325% from the 2011 and 2022 highs. Near-term resistance is at 81.76-82.82, 84.47, 85.30, 86.22-86.78(good/key), 88.06-88.49 and 89.60-90.97(good/key), with near-term support at 80.60, 79.30-78.24 (good/key), 76.60 and 75.45-74.23(good!). ADD 1.75-CENTS FOR JULY.

HOGS: Since the setback from the April 10 high of 99.72 in the MAY hogs HAS NOT YET been large enough to have confirmed a completed, "wave-[1]ADVANCE" from the Jan low…on the "continuation chart", it 's certainly possible that we 've "RESUMED" the longer-term uptrend? How-ever, because the pattern in the FAR MORE-ACTIVE, JUNE contract…DOES indicate that we 've COMPLETED a "wave-[1]RALLY" from the Jan bottom, I 'm going to hold-off on trying to re-enter long here. Note, if this count is correct, then we 'll still need to see at least a several-day, "(b)-wave RALLY" (at some point; if it 's not already under way?), AND THEN ONE MORE DROP to new sell-off lows, or "wave-(c)". At any rate, as long as the down-move from the April 10 top DOESN 'T end-up producing a larger, "5-wave" pattern (on either chart), then our Preferred Count will continue to indicate that the up-move from the Jan low is A MAJOR, BUT FINAL, "C-wave", of the same-degree as the 2020-TO-2021 RALLY (37.00-TO-122.82). In which case, due to the proximity of the KEY, "61.8%-times wave-A" projection, the "85.4%-92.71%-retracement combination" from the 2014 and 2021 highs, AND "appreciations" of 223.6% and 85.4% from the 2020 and 2024 lows, it still looks like the JUNE, JULY AND/OR AUGUST CONTRACTS…WILL HIT AT LEAST THE 117.55-119.75 AREA. Support for JUNE is at 102.60, 101.75-101.45 (good), 99.92-99.62 (good), 98.40-98.10(good) and 96.87-96.67, with resistance at 103.25, 104.15-104.35(good), 105.25, 106.15-106.35(good/key?) and 107.22.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

STOCKS: Given that the decline from the April 1 top in the JUNE Mini Dow Jones has now EXCEEDED BOTH the greatest "size" AND "duration" of ANY other drop…since the Oct 2023 low, we may have ALREADY CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, "wave-[5]ADVANCE" here? However, because we MIGHT NOT have done the same in the Mini S&P (yet?), A HIGHLY-PIVOTAL POSITION may be at hand here? Note, if an immediate, "5-wave RALLY" develops in BOTH, then the Mini S&P…COULD STILL HIT OUR MAX TARGET; AT 5514.00-5580.25 ,i.e., BEFORE a "wave-[6]DECLINE" begins? This area yields the "50%-times WAVES-I-THRU-III", AND the "76.4%-times WAVE-III" projections, AND "appreciations" of 738.2%, 155.9%, 58.85% and 34.55% from the 2009, 2020, 2022 and Oct 2023 lows. If we DON 'T see a near immediate, "5-wave RALLY", however, then we 'll have to figure that we are indeed in a "wave-[6]SETBACK". In this case, we should REMAIN IN A DOWNTREND FOR ABOUT 2-TO-3-MONTHS; WITH THE MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET…AT 4913.00-4853.00. This zone yields the "Equal Waves "[4]-AND-[6]" projection, the "9.1%-23.6%-retracement combination" from the 2009 and 2022 lows, AND a "9.1%-depreciation" from the April 1 top. Upon the completion of the "wave-[6]DECLINE", however, then the stage should be set for THE OFTEN POWERFUL, "wave-[7]SECTION UP"! Near-term resistance is at 5116.50-5146.50(good), 5178.50-5191.00, 5242.50-5253.00, 5274.50, 5303.00-5307.00(good/key) and 5338.75, with near-term support at 5098.25-5093.25, 5073.50-5036.50(good/key), 4993.25-4984.00(good) and 4948.00-4940.00.

SILVER: Considering that the April 12 high AT 29.905 in the MAY silver occurred very close to our KEY, 29.57-29.86 RESISTANCE AREA, AND a sharp initial drop obviously followed, it certainly looks like we 've COMPLETED a "wave-(5)ADVANCE" from the March 27 bottom. Note, this zone possesses the "55.9%-47.05%-94.43%-retracement combination" from the 1980, 2011 and 2021 highs, AND A LOT of "appreciations" from previous lows. At any rate, if this count is right, then a "wave-(6)SET-BACK" will probably REMAIN IN FORCE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. Thus, while I still think it 's quite possible that we 'll HOLD OUR BEST SUPPORT AREA…AT ABOUT 27.85-27.61, I 'm inclined to lower our "stop" on longs a little bit…just in case (SEE New Trades). Overall, however, given this scenario, once we 've finished a "wave-(6)DECLINE", then, as unlikely as it may seem, we could actually be entering THE SINGLE-MOST POWERFUL ADVANCE SO FAR, OR "wave-(7)"! In which case, by the time we 've traced-out waves "(7)-UP", "(8)-DOWN", AND THEN "(9)-UP", we should EASILY REACH OUR MINIMUM TARGET…AT 31.62-TO-32.45; WITH A MOVE AS HIGH AS THE 35.27-36.01 RESISTANCE LEVEL ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE (if not probable?). Note, the closer resistance area incorporates the KEY, "76.4%-times wave-A" projection", the "61.8%-52.95%-retracement combination" from the 1980 and 2011 highs, AND "appreciations" of 172.75%, 85.4%, 52.95% and 47.05% from the 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024 lows. Near-term resistance is at 28.235-28.53 and 29.00-29.09(good?), with support at 28.58, 28.16-28.03, 27.85-27.61(good/best), 27.345-27.115(good/max?) and 26.795-26.66(good/max?). ADD 27-CENTS FOR JULY.

CRUDE OIL: Given that we now have a "Double-Top" pretty close to the KEY, "61.8%-times wave-(a)" projection in the nearby MAY Crude Oil; at the April 5 and April 12 highs of 87.63 and 87.67, respectively, I 'll be keeping a "close-eye" on the near-term pattern. Note, if we happen to witness a CLEAR, "5-wave DECLINE", BEFORE A STRONG CLOSE-OVER 87.11 OCCURS, then there 's a chance that we could 've COMPLETED a "b-wave AD-VANCE" off the Dec 2023 low? For now, however, because the up-move from said low continues to look like an as yet UNFINISHED, "(c)-wave RALLY", of the same-degree as the May-Sept 2023 advance, my guess is that we 're AT LEAST GOING TO TAKE-OUT THE SEPT 2023 TOP…AT 95.03. If so, based on the proximity of the "100%-AND-114.58%-times wave-(a)" projections, the "74.425%-52.95%-AND-76.4%-58.85%-retracement combinations" from the 2008 and 2022 highs, AND "appreciations" of 55.9%-47.05%-AND-61.8%/52.95% from the May and Dec lows, it still looks like THE MINIMUM TARGET…IS AT ABOUT THE 99.04-99.57 LEVEL; WITH THE BEST OBJECTIVE AT 102.68-103.68. Assuming it eventually becomes possible to label A COMPLETED, "Single", OR "Double-Three ADVANCE" from the May 2023 bottom, however, then that should also translate into A MAJOR, "[b]-wave TOP". At which time, the stage should be set for A SUBSTANTIAL, BUT FINAL, "[c]-wave DECLINE", of the same-degree as the 2022-2023 drop! Support is at 85.41, 84.50-83.95, 83.03-82.32(good), 80.95-80.15 (good/key) and 79.27 with near-term resistance at 85.52-85.88(good), 87.59-87.96, 89.18-89.83(good/key) and 91.01-91.70. -.52-CENTS JUNE.

COFFEE: Since we ONLY need to see A DROP IN EXCESS OF ABOUT 2-TRADING DAYS in the JULY coffee, in order to CONFIRM A COMPLETED, "(3)-wave RALLY" off the Oct 2023 low, we could be getting close to A RATHER "CRITICAL" POSITION? At that point, if a "5-wave DECLINE" happens to occur, then that could mean that we 've COMPLETED a "[b]-wave RALLY"? In which case, as discussed over the past few months, by the time we have traced-out a larger, BUT FINAL, "[c]-wave DECLINE"…PRICES COULD DROP TO THE 119.60-116.60 AREA? With that said, however, because we 've now SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED BOTH the optimum "PRICE" AND "TIME" for a "[b]-wave PEAK", the more likely scenario continues to indicate that the Jan 2023, or Oct 2023 low…HAS ALREADY MARKED THE END OF A "B-wave DECLINE" from the 2022 high (260.45). If so, based on the proximity of the KEY, "76.4%-times Wave-A" projection, the "76.4%-85.4%-retracement combination" from the 1977 and 2011 highs, AND "appreciations" 561.8%, 216.835% and 90.9% from the 2001, 2019 and 2023 lows, it looks like THE BARE MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET…IS BETWEEN 267.65-AND-275.05. In the event it 's EITHER NOT POSSIBLE to label a completed advance…when this area is hit, however, OR A CLOSE-OVER 275.05 OCCURS, then we could also be looking at MUCH HIGHER LEVELS! Near-term resistance for JULY is at 229.20-230.25, 232.25, 234.25-235.50(good), 237.95-240.65(good) and 245.50-246.90(good), with support at 229.30, 228.40-226.10, 224.45, 223.30-221.35, 219.60-219.10(good), 216.60-214.80(good) and 213.00.

COCOA: Provided the "wave-(9)-of-[9]ADVANCE" from the April 4 low in the cocoa is indeed producing a "9-wave EXTENSION", then the current setback should be just a "wave-6"? In which case, by the time we 've traced-out waves "7-UP", "8-DOWN", AND THEN "9-UP", who knows how far prices may carry. At the moment, however, my "projections" continue to suggest that THE MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGETS…ARE AT 11,218-11,231 AND/OR 11,477-11,519 (SUBTRACT ABOUT $425 FOR JULY?). These levels incorporate the "3.00%-AND-3.09.1%-times Wave-A" projections, AND "appreciations" of "15.654%/5.345%/4.1179%-AND-16.091%-5.50%/4.236%" from the 2000, 2017 and 2022 lows. Overall, however, UNTIL we 've actually witnessed A DROP IN EXCESS OF 5-TRADING DAY, it will be very difficult to confirm a major top. Once this threshold HAS been met, however, then that will presumably be enough to CONFIRM BOTH A COMPLETED, "wave-[9]-SECTION UP" from the Jan 2024 bottom, AND A COMPLETED, "Cycle-wave-III ADVANCE" from the Sept 2023 low. At which point, the stage should be set for at least A BIG, 6-MONTH PLUS, "Cycle-wave-IV DECLINE", of the same-degree as the 2020-2022 DROP. In the event a "(5)-wave DECLINE" occurs here, however, then we could also see A MUCH LARGER DROP! Near-term resistance is at 10,283, 10,442-10,487, 10,620, 10,762-10,784 and 10,942-10,960(good), with support at 10,216-10,176(good/key), 10,061-10,021(good), 9904-9864(good/key) and 9748-9708(good). -$425 FOR JULY.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS     04/17/24

BEANS: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MAY beans at 12.26 3/4(+$4,087). LOWER the stop to 11.83 3/4.

WHEAT: HRT are long MAY wheat at 5.45(+$237). Keep the stop at 5.30. If stopped-out, try to buy JULY at 5.34 1/2, with a stop at 5.15 1/2.

SILVER: HRT are long 2-MAY 1,000 oz. silver at 27.875(+$890). LOWER the stop at 26.60.